Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 13.254650 14.971167 16.955860 19.452652 22.557651 26.359497 3.147834e+01
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 11.612889 13.821066 16.600308 20.464059 25.890427 33.582812 4.605845e+01
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.935669 12.166365 15.110094 19.450160 26.027591 36.322888 5.552443e+01
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 9.016933 11.305389 14.448543 19.327115 27.254444 40.918537 7.049562e+01
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.250428 10.531232 13.761611 18.983803 27.970664 44.816707 8.684103e+01
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 7.702816 9.991065 13.323423 18.917920 29.091457 49.852226 1.104836e+02
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 7.319405 9.640507 13.112969 19.165192 30.811851 56.867552 1.488831e+02
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 6.827692 9.081590 12.512673 18.642175 30.898982 60.173226 1.803046e+02
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.498702 8.738763 12.215802 18.604278 31.964057 66.522357 2.404736e+02
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.075956 8.219990 11.584421 17.865271 31.345510 67.933078 2.791059e+02
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.653478 7.675932 10.870181 16.890497 30.016674 66.723200 2.988119e+02
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.310246 7.237670 10.303051 16.140342 29.088075 66.518394 3.301356e+02
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 5.457451 7.597404 11.134834 18.277338 35.807541 98.357234 1.211144e+03
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.384682 7.594811 11.337736 19.186420 39.822101 126.245825 6.342729e+03
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.063235 7.159828 10.727523 18.265773 38.368075 125.558165 1.101162e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.877831 6.942073 10.497093 18.153921 39.327682 140.148832 2.999534e+06
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.681991 6.695501 10.194614 17.841772 39.593426 151.376237 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.532910 6.520274 10.012169 17.781838 40.677858 170.852561 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.428583 6.415743 9.954723 18.006729 42.827314 204.872409 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.251644 6.176377 9.622163 17.530882 42.351723 214.181752 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.135443 6.037793 9.476286 17.496377 43.528369 245.869981 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.957633 5.783443 9.089332 16.822843 42.081308 242.844602 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.765443 5.497685 8.628810 15.932394 39.641513 224.005589 NaN